In the wake of the United States’ recent tariff announcements, markets across the globe are adjusting to a renewed phase of economic uncertainty. Although a 90-day suspension of these measures was announced on April 9th, the underlying threat of their enforcement remains.
The proposed tariff framework includes a 10% flat rate, with the potential for additional “reciprocal” tariffs based on each country’s trade balance with the United States. While the intention is to address long-standing trade imbalances, the measures are expected to have differentiated effects depending on the specific economic structure and trade exposure of each jurisdiction.
After reaching an elevated import barrier on Chinese goods to the US amounting to 145%, which Beijing matched by imposing a 125% levy on American imports, several rounds of talks between Chinese and American trade representatives led Washington and Beijing to de-escalate their trade tensions on May 12th. More specifically, US Secretary Scott Bessent and He Lifeng, China’s vice-premier, agreed to a ceasefire that would reduce respective tariffs by 115 percentage points for 90 days.
Hence, as of May 13th, American tariffs on Chinese products stand at 30%, while Chinese levies on the US amount to 10%.
While this represents a positive development in bilateral trade discussions, the current tariff rate continues to impact the price competitiveness of Chinese exporters in the American market, particularly given the persistence of sector-specific tariffs.
Given China’s central role in global supply chains — especially in sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, and rare-earth metals — US import barriers are expected to affect industries with significant exposure to intermediate goods and components from China.
However, some potential mitigating factors exist. Firstly, China has positioned itself as a consistent advocate of free trade, adopting a wait-and-see approach to reassure foreign markets and investors of its ongoing commitment to international economic cooperation. Secondly, according to the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, exports to the US account for approximately 14% of China’s total exports (roughly $550 billion). Thirdly, the evolving tariff environment may reinforce China’s ongoing transition toward a more consumption-led growth model under the ‘Dual Circulation’ strategy.
In this context, while remaining open to international trade and continuing to attract FDI, China may increasingly rely on domestic aggregate demand as a stabilising force, which still offers significant growth potential.
As a result, many foreign companies are expected to maintain or increase their presence in the Chinese market by adopting the ‘In China, For China’ strategy — a model aimed at balancing global exposure while building resilience through localised production and distribution.
In the first half of 2023, the city registered 2,541 new foreign-invested enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 63.3%, with a total contracted foreign capital inflow exceeding USD 12.7 billion. In recent years, Vietnam has emerged as a notable beneficiary of the gradual US-China trade divergence, with several multinational companies (MNCs) seeking to mitigate risks associated with trade tensions by diversifying supply chains under the ‘China Plus One’ strategy.
However, although enforcement is suspended for the next three months, the US government has announced a 46% tariff rate on Vietnamese exports to the US market. Consequently, this measure could weigh on Vietnam’s growth outlook, given the country’s high reliance on exports and the potential scale of market disruption.
That said, this scenario could also present Vietnam with opportunities. For instance, it might further strengthen its trade partnership with China, which is becoming an increasingly relevant stakeholder in the Vietnamese market as several Chinese companies are planning to build production sites in the country. Furthermore, in the current geopolitical environment, Vietnam is likely to continue to attract FDI inflows, climb up the value chain ladder, and upgrade economically, gradually shifting to higher value-added production forces.
Indian exports to the US market could be subject to a 27% tariff rate after the 90-day pause. While this level is lower than for some other countries, if implemented, it may affect India’s competitiveness in key export sectors such as textiles, apparel, mineral fuels, and chemicals. The United States is India’s largest individual export destination, accounting for approximately 18% of total outbound trade.
At the same time, India may find opportunities to strengthen its position in global value chains as companies seek to diversify operations across the Indo-Pacific. For example, Apple has recently indicated plans to shift part of its production from China to India to mitigate potential tariff impacts on its supply chains.
India’s large labour force, access to raw materials, growing digital economy, and considerable long-term growth potential continue to enhance its attractiveness as an FDI destination. Additionally, the recent conclusion of a free trade agreement with the European Union may enable India to further diversify its export markets, potentially reducing dependence on the US.
Lastly, a flat 20% import duty on all exports from the European trade bloc towards the American market — alongside further sector-specific levies on EU steel and aluminium — was announced by the White House, although its effectiveness has been halted for 90 days. The impact of these measures is expected to vary across EU member states, depending on their respective exposure to the US market. Germany and Italy, whose exports to the US are particularly significant, are likely to be among the most affected.
Senior EU officials have initiated negotiations with US counterparts to explore possible adjustments, including to the proposed 10% flat levy. In parallel, the EU is working to strengthen internal trade cooperation and external trade partnerships.
In this context, efforts to improve relations with China continue, despite recent frictions. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič has met with Chinese officials to discuss enhancing market access and promoting a level playing field for European companies. Separately, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has signed a new trade agreement with Mercosur aimed at deepening EU–Latin America trade relations.
While the US administration has signalled a willingness to engage in dialogue, the evolving tariff landscape reflects a broader reconfiguration of global trade dynamics. Export-oriented economies, particularly those deeply embedded in global value chains, must navigate this environment with strategic foresight.
For businesses, the rising complexity of cross-border trade arrangements underscores the importance of long-term planning, diversified market access, and localized operations. Meanwhile, the downstream impact on global consumers—particularly within the United States—is likely to manifest through increased prices and supply chain adjustments.
In this context, stakeholders across the Indo-Pacific and Europe may find both challenges and opportunities as they adapt to a more fragmented and competitive global trading system.
I.Introduction With the rapid development of technology, customer flow analysis has been widely applied in the retail and service industries as an important tool to optimize operations. Customer flow analysis refers to businesses using devices such as cameras to collect customer entry behavior data and using data modeling to determine customer movement paths, staying areas,
Introduction In the wake of the United States’ recent tariff announcements, markets across the globe are adjusting to a renewed phase of economic uncertainty. Although a 90-day suspension of these measures was announced on April 9th, the underlying threat of their enforcement remains. The proposed tariff framework includes a 10% flat rate, with the potential
The Yangtze River Delta region (hereinafter referred to as the “Delta Region”) continues to stand at the forefront of China’s high-quality economic development and remains a crucial destination for foreign investment. Comprising the municipalities and provinces of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, the Delta Region plays a strategic role in China’s national development. As of
